Texas has sued the federal government forty-four times since President Obama began his campaign of executive overreach, and has often won in the courts. The presidential election will offer an opportunity to reverse many of this administrations attempts at over regulation. Britain, and other members of the European Union have no legal recourse or a direct election to fight back on similar over regulation and overreach by technocrats in the EU. That was the primary reason Britain voted to leave the EU.
By happenstance I was in the United Kingdom for the run up to the election, and was following the campaign for personal investment reasons. The chance to talk to people in London and Scotland left little doubt “Leave” would win. Britain, like America, has a long history of valuing independence and individual freedom. After all this is where the Magna Carta was signed, and where the only successful attack on the Tower of London fortress was carried out by the common people when military attacks all failed.
The same strains exist in the US and will play a major role in the coming election, including a desire for more control of our borders. People here are just as tired of senseless rules coming out of Washington as the British were with senseless rules coming out of Brussels. Look for the same vicious attacks on those who want better immigration controls here as argued by the “Remain” campaign. You can also expect the same polling bias. Late polls showed “Remain” leading 52% to 48%, but “Leave” won with 52%. Betting pools and the trading futures market also badly missed the results. I suspect some “Leave” supporters lied to pollsters in fear of expressing their real feelings on the matter.
Expect volatility in the stock markets for a time as this vote really was a hinge point in history and it will take a while for things to settle down. In the long run the world economy will be stronger and we will see specific benefits in the US and the UK. The UK has one of the fastest growing economies in Europe and is the second largest European economy. Older voters who supported the referendum remembered the time before the EU and how their country was successful and sovereign. It will be so again.
David T. Stevenson, Policy Director
Center for Economic Policy